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Politics : Idea Of The Day

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To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (39892)	6/14/2001 6:57:12 PM
From: gerard mangiardi	Read Replies (2) of 50167

My posts are normally one sentence wonders. About a year or so ago I asked the question what will happen if the american consumer becomes satiated? It is still in my mind the major risk to the world economy. It is something that is looming out there. That said I am currently very bullish in my outlook for the next six months. Barrons recently had a bit on oil which suggested that for the last year or so oil output has exceeded consumption. Marginal wells are now profitable and OPEC is faced with a stark choice. Either lower prices to sustain market share or have the world economic slowdown do it for them and watch prices plummet as a result. The OPEC ministers are smart men and I believe they will want lower prices to sustain both market share and world demand in a manner they think they can control. This recession was brought on by OPEC and OPEC will end it. The combination of fiscal, monetary and energy stimulus is what I would call a super goldilocks scenario. I also suspect that contrary to current opinion telcos will soon be forced to buy big for broadband capacity as in the US at least those networks are currently at or close to capacity. A spending boom is about to begin and networkers in this area will benefit. I am not so sure about some semi companies and PC manufacturers as lots of people have a PCs and there is no urgent need to upgrade- no killer ap to force the move. Too bad the present administration is so pro big business. New attitudes that came with them have helped exacerbate the slowdown in CAPEX by telcos. The energy policy will not result in a building boom because investment in thsi area is driven by prices not costs of plants. There is no need to wreck havoc on the environment which is what policy as I have read it wants to do. What na embarrassment to try to have Bush lobby for the ge hon deal. Haw effective could he be anyway the way this administration has decided to make unilateral policy decisions? It has only helped to alienate the rest of the world toward the US. Stocks I currently like are irf gnss fdry ibm msft and amx. There are plenty more. BTW last quarter I did quite well buying options of tech cos that didn't warn. I would love to hear from people those tech companies that my actually beat expectations this quarter.

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