SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 681.43+0.2%Dec 2 4:00 PM EST
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: HairBall who started this subject6/15/2001 8:16:46 AM
From: s berg  Read Replies (4) of 99985
 
How do you distinguish dead from hibernating bears?

Now that many of us are experiencing our first bear market it is a good time to think about how to use TA to tell if the bear is dead. It is clear to me that rallys per se like we had in Jan and now, do not themselves sound an all clear.

But what if
1. The market bounces from the 50% retracement of last rally point we are approaching. Does this increase the odds we are in a new bull market and have put in a long term bottom on nasdaq and SP
2. The next uptrend makes a substantially new high in the dow

What I am asking is whether you can distinguish a bear market rally from a new bull market by gauging the depth of the subsequent pull back or whether you have to wait longer and make the determination using hindsight. Alternately does a rally to new highs end a bear market (i.e. make it very unlikely that the lows of the market will be tested in the intermediate term).

I realize these approaches are far from rocket science from a TA perspective. So if anyone has a rocket science approach to predicting an end to the bear I would appreciate hearing it too.

OT, this q reminds me of an article I read years ago in Scientific America about a researcher who used to send his students into caves where bears were hibernating to get blood samples in the interval while they were awakening but still drowsy. I believe that long investors are at a comparably dangerous point in the investing cycle.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News