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Strategies & Market Trends : Fidelity Select Sector funds
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To: Jim Battaglia who wrote (3774)6/15/2001 9:11:04 AM
From: James F. Hopkins   of 4916
 
This is what I was worried about early in the week,
quotes.ino.com
quotes.ino.com
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If we go back some we can see that Foreign investors were finding safety
in U.S. stocks, however as the dollar falls that safety becomes a liability.
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If I take the NDX back to 3 points, March 2 , then May 7th , and June 8th,
( I found it about the same on those 3 dates) ..( I don't like to use lows to highs or the
other way around but prefer to find a start/stop window in time at the same price which
spans across a low or high.

From that ( I mostly do the NDX ) but I can weight the stocks in any particular index
By the DOLLARS they actually TRADE , ( price X volume, and call it a Mo Mo ) and compare that Mo Mo
to the Cap weighted index ( which can lie like hell as to bullish/bearish moves if thin traded stocks are moving it )
where the Volume X price weighted; is acting like a extended trin.
IE- More Volume of dollars can trade on the Down Stocks even when the Index goes UP, but if it does
the Index will correct in time..
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During those windows of time the spread between the Mo Mo and Cap weighted gives me an
idea as to real money flow no matter what the index does or the pundits say.
Also I watch that Dollar index, which was UP 11% at he same time the NDX was Flat and the
spread was slightly negative..( it's gone hard negative now since the Dollar rolled over )

My take of that is Foreigners see our stock index via their currency; and they had gained 11% ,
while we were flat : BUT now they see that they are losing that gain.
( both ways with the index falling as well as the Dollar
they start to jump out )
From the 9th of June the NDX has pulled back about 9% ( to us ) and 12% for the
average Foreigners.( they have lost their 11% gain in the windows I used )
( this shows up mostly in the Big Caps that trade in Foreign Markets )
Jim
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