DlphcOracl: . . . . . . Do you still see NASDAQ descent to 1750-1850 range as a buying opportunity or a prelude to something worse?
DO, if we see a sharp spike in volatility, which I fully expect, I would welcome that range as a buying op. But NOT for the typical names. We should guide our buys moving forward. . . by EARNINGS, growth rate, EARNINGS growth, fundamental condition, competitive analysis, and did I mention EARNINGS?
One question is: "which of the tech stocks fall into this category?" That is going to take some homework to answer.
Another question is: "how hard will we bounce?" I think we will bounce nicely into the first half of July. . . but then get stuck in a summer trading range beginning the latter half. But there will be enough swing in late June and early July for swing traders to have some fun.
And finally, I think we will not rise throughout the summer. . . as many believe, but rather we will settle into a trading range after our initial late June early July bounce. So starting the 16th of July and continuing through until October, I see us stuck in a trading range. . . .and probably seeing no more than 200 points of range on COMPX during this period. . . with range averaging between 2000 to 2150 throughout latter half of summer.
Some stocks will not be held back. . . .and will make extraordinary gains throughout the summer. . . .despite the tight trading range. They will no doubt be in the same sector. Interactive TV? Alternative energy? Whichever. . . .we want those.
But I can't imagine the market getting hit with the sort of volume needed to sustain such an important rally throughout the late summer. Historically, it just doesn't happen that way. So I expect further trouble in early October before we are cleared by the "powers that be" to move higher for good.
The quote for the season is . . .'patience rewards'.
Rande Is |
