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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Mining Stocks
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To: goldsheet who wrote (1376)6/15/2001 9:32:12 AM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (1) of 4051
 
More detail from Shaw's "Trend in Hedging" report:

NDY decreased hedge book a little in first quarter down 378K to 10.2 m oz. Received an e mail from a FN investor who has looked into and discussed the situation with that mgt. Apparently FN is not (at least publicly)going to pressure for buybacks. NDY is not rolling over into new positions now, just delivering production.

Of the Aussies, New Hampton (bought by Harmony) was a big hedger in the first quarter. Delta, Western and Goldfields (Aus.) were into it big as well. But as I've been suggesting, the market dynamics have really changed. The forward contango has dropped as follows:
12-31-00: 5.26% on three month basis
3-31-01: 3.03%
5-1: 2.02%
now: 1.8-1.9% range

The next Fed cut (possibly 50 bp?) expected 6/27 will really benefit this market structure and POG.

At 275, four Aust producers are under water on their hedge books. At 300, seven more will be, and at 350 all will be, many critically.
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