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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (43521)	6/15/2001 11:10:37 AM
From: Bruce Brown	Read Replies (3) of 54805

There is very little concrete discussion about valuation lately. Is that because most of us consider all the gorillas and kings undervalued, now? Give it a go, Malcolm. If you think you can be more accurate with the EPS numbers than the analysts and corporate managements have been - have at it. If managements cannot even get it close this quarter (or last) - how do you expect we are to get it close? Tough environment to nail down EPS - both current and the next few quarters. We could roll up the sleeves, but we're in a moving EPS target environment at the moment with lots of factors in the equation. That's typical for a "non visibility" sector that is in the sharp contraction period with the thought of some sort of expansion period to begin at some point in the next 4 or more quarters. Do we run the valuation on the current quarter, Q3, Q4 or the even more unknown of Q1, Q2 and Q3 of 2002? As the discounting process begins when looking out 6 months or so for a particular sector, the valuation based on current earnings can seem quite 'extended'. Yet, the market is anticipating the future earnings improvement. BB

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