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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU)
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To: michael97123 who wrote (20450)6/15/2001 2:16:39 PM
From: Hank Stamper  Read Replies (2) of 24042
 
"If you time things just right, ...."
Timing schmiming! I don't really think you are writing about timing. (If I may be so bold as to pretend to be an expert on your mind. :)) To me, you are simply saying that this stock will recover and buy while the price is real low and then don't fret if it goes lower or takes time for the bear market to end.

AMAT was selling at 20 in the fall of 1998. All through the spring/summer/most-fall, the experts in semi capx said the bottom of the market was no where in sight. The orders had dried up and the news was awash with pushouts; there was simply no visability for the bottom. The smart buyers knew they could not time the bottom. They knew they should be buying in the _area of the bottom_. They knew that if they fretted about five or so bucks one way or the other, they'd miss the boat. So the smart buyers nibbled on Mr. Market's weakness through the spring, summer, and fall to build a position for when the sector recovered.

By the time we _know_ the FO glut is beginning to end, it will be too late!!!! That's the time when a person will be in the unenviable position of wanting to chase the stock upward after it already saw strong movement. And, we all know that chasing a stock like this upward is dumb. Don't we, eh?

Ciao,
Hank Stamper
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