I'm not qualified to expand on my feelings regarding market direction, certainly not to the level of the discussion on this board. My market direction comments are not really suitable for this forum as they are only based on broad global factors such as the economy and historical market ratios and measures.>>
David. I respectfully disagree. While most of the posts here relate to market direction in the very short term, there are many who post only infrequently here, who sometimes participate, but mostly lurk. I am in that category myself.
That does not mean our comments lack value. For example, since last July, I am net $70,000 in profits in buying and holding puts on the S&P. Just because I buy and hold (even in the put or call area) more in the long term of things does not mean my views are unimportant ... and just because some people post multiple times every day here does not mean their views are necessarily valid.
Now I have a comment and question for you. My regular readings and careful study indicate ... (1) If the major indexes are the same on December 31 as they are today, that will be a major accomplishment for them ... (2) I believe we will either test or break all major index lows for 2000-2001 before the end of the year ... either between now and late July or in September-October ... (3) DJIA 8,500 or lower, S&P 500 900 or lower and Nasdaq Composite 1,500 or lower are about where I think we are headed for lows this year ... possibly another 20% lower than those numbers ... (4) When all is said and done, I believe that looking backwards from June, 2002, we will see that the U.S. economy was in recession for at least 3 quarters in a row (Q2, 3 and 4 of 2000) ... and (4) ... economic recovery in the U.S. will not begin until January, 2002 at the very earliest ...
What do you think?
Ken Wilson |
