Dave,
Not feeling that great today, got a lower back that feels like it's on fire. So if I come off grumpy, don't take it personally.
I agree with your take on downside for MSFT and the market.
Looking at the daily chart, the fib retraces from the march low to the june high are: 38% - 64.50, 50% - 61.50, 62% - 58.50. Actually, the weekly chart gives me a better feel for the current situation of that stock, stochastics and adx are just generating sell signals. Of note is the series of higher highs and lows: (week of) 12/22 - low 40.25, 2/2 - high 64.75, 3/23 low 49.75, 6/8 high 73.25. The last push to highs broke the downtrend since spring 2000. I think it would be very important for price to maintain a higher low on this next push down in order to preserve the possibility for higher highs in the months to come.
I agree that MSFT is a quality company. A giant in the industry. Also, I suppose that considering your long term position of ten years (!), there would be little reason to adjust your position due to the tax consequences of any move.
Best of luck,
Regards,
Eichler |
