Well, that's the big debate, whether all the bad news is yet out on the table and in the stocks. IMO, telco equip will probably be about the last tech sector to rebound. The main reason for that, is the debt loads of telcos, which are going to restrict capital spending for a long, long time. Look at the debt and cash flow of WCOM, T, etc., or any CLECs, and it's difficult to see how the telecom buildout gets back into high gear, anytime this year or next. The best way to predict what's going to happen to JDSU, is to follow the telcos, just like the best way to predict what's going to happen to AMAT is to follow INTC and MU (maybe the foundries have replaced memory as the bellwether to follow).
OT: bellwether is a male sheep that leads the flock. Folow the sound of the bell on his neck, and you know where the herd is going. |
