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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: Stock Farmer who wrote (5025)6/16/2001 5:46:26 AM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (21) of 74559
 
I have a vision. The forces of foolish darkness and intelligent light, arrayed against each other, dug deep into trenches colored red against green, dressed in uniforms of paper script against armors of gold, armed with bows accompanied by a few hundred arrows of basis points against unfamiliar looking guns cooled by water jackets supplied with ready hails of machined bad news.

The communication threads are at a hush, the fog of uncertainty soon to be burned through by honest rays of sun. The propagandists of both sides are working their already hoarse voices in a ding of cheer against anticipation, hope against glee, anxiety against conviction.

There is only one certain outcome for the coming cataclysmic showdown. Coffins will be required for the debt-ed and guillotine blades will be used on the greedy.

I have a dream. The camera pulls away from the two groups of combatants, revealing in the widened horizon a third force, hidden on the hills, shielded in utilitarian platinum, armed with thrifty cash, camouflaged to be neutral, observing in amusement, emotionally clear, rationally flexible, ready to pounce, ready to run, to either retire to island abode on 18% yield treasury bills or to discharge a fusillade of machined bullets against what the force of darkness can rally, and what the forces of light can scatter into a rout.

I have an observation. No single event caused any of the cataclysmic financial events in recorded history. This is why ‘the cause’ has always been controversial, the facts inevitably debatable, the prevention never clear, and the occurrences episodic, as sure as the sun will rise tomorrow.

A combination of weakened discipline, soft rationality, poor policy, rotten framework and the certainty of equation of time made the disasters possible, and psychology of fear triumphing over greedy did the rest.

I have a wish. The events about to unfold will be decisive, will make a difference, will reward all the deserving few, whatever the color of their shield, and will educate the rest, whatever their current beliefs.

I have a regret. Many innocents will perish, due not to their own fault, but to the follies of others.

I have an explanation. No rights, no wrongs, only is, and getting nearer with each passing day and each down tick of basis points. The pain may be sharp, and the shock sudden. The ebb of vitality may be gradual; the anguish may be long lasting.

Any joy would be surprising, because the sin of effortless gain has no historic precedent.

Chugs, Jay
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