Hi Donald; High Dollar
with last weeks down draft , most TA is showing the NDX short term oversold, however I have
doubts about taht.
The A/D in the NDX Friday was A 58/ D41 unchanged 1, and the average stock price was up 9 cents
However the VOLUME was "very" heavy on the Down stocks dollar wise 17.9 Bil traded down and
only 14.5 bil up. ( real trin on NDX was 1.75 )
The dollar index rallied back up .4 of 1% and that may have saved a deeper sell off.
All the noise aside the dollar is critical to which way we go, however when the BIG companies
complain of a high dollar killing profits, stocks always get in trouble.
The value of our stock market is tied so much to foreign investors that when the dollar falls
they bail out.
I'm surprised the dollar got as high as it did with all the rate cuts..there must be a lot
of shorts on it. I heard one pundit predict a 25% drop in the dollar..( rather extreme ) but
even if he is half right that would drop the big caps to new lows.
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While new highs seem to be out doing new lows at this point I think that indicates
how washed out the lows are , but the new highs are just making the indexes
dependent on a narrow ( top heavy ) few and if they roll over the total market cap can fall
fast .
So maybe a short term bounce about Tuesday but I'm worried about a hard down draft
hitting latter and when no one expects it.
Jim
P.S. did you see the volume on CSCO ?
However MSFT because of her price effected the dollar tick more.
here is a look at the 41 down stocks Friday..Price X Volume
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Symbol Last Chg Volume DOWN 41 stocks
MSFT 68.02 -0.88 54246200 3,689,826,524
CSCO 16.65 -1.09 116650496 1,942,230,758
CIEN 40.14 -4.53 35388200 1,420,482,348
JDSU 12.44 -1.37 82851200 1,030,668,928
AMAT 49.91 -1.09 20592500 1,027,771,675
QCOM 49.35 -2.15 17188500 848,252,475
DELL 24.32 -0.72 34148300 830,486,656
VRTS 59.96 -0.06 12854400 770,749,824
SUNW 15.19 -0.31 45061300 684,481,147
JNPR 31.14 -1.16 20362200 634,078,908
WCOM 15.8 -0.30 27945700 441,542,060
MXIM 47.14 -1.43 8152900 384,327,706
BRCM 31.92 -1.12 11872200 378,960,624
SANM 21.26 -1.15 16559600 352,057,096
MERQ 54.79 -0.04 5400600 295,898,874
LLTC 46.89 -0.63 5851700 274,386,213
TLAB 24.51 -1.20 10537700 258,279,027
PMCS 27.66 -1.59 9219500 255,011,370
AMCC 15.42 -1.17 16444200 253,569,564
TMPW 55.61 -2.36 4539200 252,424,912
CEFT 50.27 -0.54 4645100 233,509,177
NXTL 14.25 -0.19 13133300 187,149,525
NTAP 14.74 -0.33 12096300 178,299,462
VTSS 18.98 -0.64 7869200 149,357,416
EXDS 4.61 -0.40 31001300 142,915,993
YHOO 16.01 -0.46 8630200 138,169,502
ADLAC 41 -1.13 2771400 113,627,400
MCLD 3.53 -0.27 31599900 111,547,647
ADCT 7.26 -0.15 13741900 99,766,194
AMZN 12.49 -0.80 7671600 95,818,284
BMET 45.09 -1.12 2049100 92,393,919
LVLT 7.62 -0.34 11220300 85,498,686
PALM 5.14 -0.36 14497000 74,514,580
INKT 8.53 -0.22 5930500 50,587,165
MFNX 3.49 -0.06 10791000 37,660,590
COMS 4.62 -0.25 8075900 37,310,658
PMTC 10.76 -0.04 3184100 34,260,916
BVSN 4.57 -0.08 7367800 33,670,846
ARBA 4.82 -0.31 6225400 30,006,428
RNWK 10.39 -0.31 2440800 25,359,912
XOXO 2.44 -0.07 7419000 18,102,360
Totals 41 stocks down $17,995,013,349
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and like I said the 58 up stocks only had
$14,518,920,971 dollars traded
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P.S 2 the way I do trin is more extream ( both ways)
regular trin calculations do A/D
-----( diveded by )
up/dn volume
with no consideration of the "price" of the a/d stocks.
so it don't have Dollars in it. Mine does. |
