ftth the person,
I've thought about the unison aspect too. I was suspicious of this when certain CEOs began predicting dire global outcomes about four to six months ago, prior to letting us know the specifics of their results. Soon, others joined in, and as long as they were all in agreement that none of this was avoidable, it takes some of the sting out of any one of them, individually.
Like individual band members in a Jazz Ensemble at a weekend gig, they all came in with their own licks when called upon to improvise, and the genre of the music they were playing is called the blues.
But I think there is more to this than spin.
Jim, ftth,
Perhaps he's simply referring to a return to normalcy by the service providers after they were successfully taken in by the bubble three years ago, i.e., into thinking that the demand would be much larger than it actually is.
Or, maybe there is some reticence on the parts of some network providers to put in more of the same, while new OIF/ITU/IETF initiatives are beginning to bear fruit, causing a degree of reticence on the parts of some operators to perpetuate the models they now have in place.
This is, in fact, the case with at least two IXCs that I am aware of, where their next optical switching platforms will be using control plane constructs as opposed to the kludges that are now being used. But those platforms aren't soup yet, and numerous trials need to be performed before they become soup.
I'm not suggesting that the foregoing, alone, is responsible for the slowdown - or that in and of itself an explanation can be found - but it's a factor. And it would make more sense to wait, not only for the new platforms to become soup, but until greater visibility appears, as well.
Several days ago I read an analysis from JPMorganChase that suggested that some of the newer carriers had an excellent game plan for the Web-centric model. The problem, the analyst concluded, is that the web-centric model has ceased to be at the center of carriers' focus.
Instead, they are returning to more traditional forms of market dynamics and value propositions, and yes, even revamping vertical services whereas horizontal positioning was the cry of the land just a year ago, and is still being clung to, by some. And probably rightfully so in certain point solution spaces. Nevertheless, in this sense I suppose that a shift {back to the past, wrt providing services where values are identifiable, instead of depending on a kind of blind faith formula that drove many carriers to overindulge in spending} could be be viewed as what he's referring to.
Likewise, GbE is now offering a value proposition to users that is beginning to decimate SONET (to sometimes unbelievable proportions) in the campus and metro markets, soon in the WAN, as well. The earlier, more-robust platforms that permitted this to take place are now seeing stiff competition from less-costly methods of delivering the same number of bits.
At the same time, carriers are experiencing severe internal tensions to, on the one hand, implement the next gen stuff in order to remain competitive with some of the startups. And on the other hand, attempt to hold on to their margins in ways that they've still not been able to identify.
Are these circumstances indicative of greater efficiencies? Okay, I'll say it, are they attributable to Moores Law? Probably so, athough I think Robert Metcalfe would have something to say about that, as well.
Are the newer GbE platforms sustainable by carriers who have historically also had the responsibility to service the bad as well as the good accounts? I don't know. Again, cause for reticence in commercial sectors, just as there is cause in the residential sector to hold back, and not go all out all at once by putting in what'll do the best job.
The best job may just not be affordable to users if the carriers claim their historical margins, and if they don't claim those margins, the model may not be sustainable. In the end water seeks its own level.
If you take what I've offered above, add some of what ftth had stated earlier, and throw in some unseasoned FUD, I think this has the makings of a winning reply. Comments, corrections, welcome.
FAC |
