Can we get more bearish than this???
A Look At Some Breakdowns Among the Major Indices
In Friday's report we looked at the Nasdaq-100 Non-financial Index and the QQQ's, which track this index. Today we wanted to take a closer look at some of the other important broad market indices as several have made important downside breaks. Keep in mind that the NYSE and OTC Bullish Percents are much better indicators of risk than a specific index or a handful of indices, but studying the charts of the major indices can help us judge and evaluate the current trend of the market and allow us to determine if a particular move higher is simply a countertrend bounce, or a more defined trend following move.
Dow Jones Industrial Average [DJIA] Dow Jones (10690.10) The 50-point chart of the Dow shows this average on third consecutive sell signal since breaking a double bottom at 10800. As well, nearest support is at 10450 with longer term support at the bullish support line, 10200. Interestingly, on the longer term 100-point chart, the Dow Industrials have simply pulled back to the former resistance area where the bearish resistance line breakout occurred. Former resistance areas often act as support on the way back down. As well, note that a high pole warning would occur at 10400, which would also violate the next support area on the 50-point chart.
DJIA 50-point chart
11500 -------------------------------------------------------------------------11500
11450 11450
11400 11400
11350 X 11350
11300 X O 11300
11250 ------------------------------------------------X O ---------------------11250
11200 X O 11200
11150 X O X 11150
11100 X O X O 11100
11050 X O X O 11050
11000 ------------------------------------------------X O X O X ---------------11000
10950 * X X O X O X O 10950
10900 X * ----* --------------------------X --X --X O X O X O X O -------------10900
10850 X O * X * X O X O X O X 6 O X O 10850
10800 X O * X O * X O X O X O O O 10800
10750 * O ----X O --* --------------------X 5 --O X ------------O -------------10750
10700 O X O * X X O O 10700
10650 O X X O * X O X O 10650
10600 O X O X O * X O X O Med10600
10550 O X O X O * X O X 10550
10500 --O X O X O ------------* ------X O X -----------------------------------10500
10450 O X O X O * X O 10450
10400 O X 3 X O * X 10400
10350 O X O O * X 10350
10300 O O X 10300
10250 ----------O --------------------X ---------------------------------------10250
10200 O X * 10200
10150 O X X * 10150
10100 O X O X * 10100
10050 O X X O X * 10050
10000 ----------O X O ------------X O X ----------------* ---------------------10000
9950 O X O X 4 X O * 9950
9900------------O --O X O X O X --X ----------------* -------------------------9900--
9850 O X O X O X O X * 9850
9800 O X O X O X O X * 9800
9750----------------O X O X O X O X ----------* -------------------------------9750--
9700 O X O O X O * 9700
9650 O X O X * 9650
9600 O X O X * 9600
9550 O X O X * 9550
9500----------------O X ----O X ----* -----------------------------------------9500--
9450 O X O X * 9450
9400 O X O * Bot9400
9350 O X * 9350
9300 O X * 9300
9250----------------O X --* ---------------------------------------------------9250--
9200 O X * 9200
9150 O * 9150
9100 * 9100
9050 9050
9000---------------------------------------------------------------------------9000--
8950 8950
DJIA 100-point chart
11700 | 11700
11600 | 11600
11500 ----------------* ------------------+------------------------------------11500
11400 9 * | 11400
11300 X O * | X 11300
11200 X O * | X O 11200
11100 X X O * | * X O 11100
11000 X O ------------X O B ----* * --* --* --X --2 * --------5 O -------------11000
10900 X O X X O X O X * X * X * X O X O * X O 10900
10800 X O X O X X 8 O X O X O X O X O X O X O X * X 6 10800
10700 X 5 X O X O 7 O X O X O X X O X O X O X O X O 3 O * X O 10700
10600 X O X O 6 O X O X O X O X O C O O X 1 O X O X O * X o Med10600
10500 X O X O X O X O * A X O X O X ----O X --* O --O X O ----X ---------------10500
10400 X O X O X O * * O X O O X O X * O X O X 10400
10300 O O * * O X O O * O O X 10300
10200 * * O X * | O X 10200
10100 * O X | O X 10100
10000 * ----------------O X --------------| ------------O ----X ---------------10000
9900 O X | O X X 9900
9800 O X | O X O X 9800
9700 O | O X O X 9700
9600 | O X 4 X 9600
9500--------------------------------------| ------------O X O X * -------------9500--
9400 | O X O * Bot9400
9300 | O X * 9300
9200 | O * 9200
9100 | * 9100
9000--------------------------------------| -----------------------------------9000--
8900 | 8900
8800 | 8800
Nasdaq Composite [NASD] Nasdaq Composite (2025.70) The Nasdaq violated a spread double bottom today and shows no near term chart support until the breakout area at 2000. A move to 1950 would bring the 1650 April lows into play. Meanwhile, an incomplete bearish price objective is 1800.
COMP Trend Chart
3600 * | 3600
3550 * | 3550
3500-----------* --------------| ----------------------------------------------3500-
3450 O X * | 3450
3400 O B O * | 3400
3350 O X X O * | 3350
3300 O X O X O * | 3300
3250-O X O X O ----------* ----| ----------------------------------------------3250-
3200 O X O X O X * | 3200
3150 O X O O X O * | 3150
3100 O O X O * 3100
3050 O X O | * 3050
3000---------O X O --------X --| --* ------------------------------------------3000-
2950 O X O X X O | * 2950
2900 O O X O X X O | * * 2900
2850 O X O X O X O | X * X * 2850
2800 O O X O X O | X O X O * 2800
2750-----------------O X O --O | ------X O X O --* ----------------------------2750-
2700 O C O | X O 2 * 2700
2650 O X O | X O * 2650
2600 O X O | X X O * 2600
2550 O O X X O X O X * 2550
2500-------------------------O X O X O X ----O X O --------* -------------- Top2500-
2450 O X O X O X O X O * 2450
2400 O X 1 X O X O O * 2400
2350 O X O X O X O * 2350
2300 O | O O O X 2300
2250---------------------------| ----------------O --------X O 6 --------------2250-
2200 | O X 5 O X O 2200
2150 | O X O X O X O 2150
2100 | 3 X O X O O 2100
2050 | O X O O Med2050
2000---------------------------| ----------------O ----X --------o-------------2000-
1950 | O X X 1950
1900 | O X O X 1900
1850 | O X O X 1850
1800 | O O X 1800
1750---------------------------| --------------------4 X ----------------------1750-
1700 | O X 1700
1650 | O 1650
1600 | Bot1600
1550 | 1550
S&P 500
[SPX] S & P 500 Index ($1219.870) The SPX remains in a downtrend on the 20-point chart after failing at the bearish resistance line, which was at 1320. The initial support area is in the 1180-1200 area with better support at 1100.
SPX Trend Chart 20-point per box
1600-------------------------------------------+-------------------------------1600-
1580 | 1580
1560 | 1560
1540 X * | 1540
1520 X O X X * | 1520
1500-------X O X O --------7 --X O * ----------+-------------------------------1500-
1480 X O X O X X O 8 O * | 1480
1460 X 4 X O X O X X O X 9 * | 1460
1440 O X X O X O X O X O 6 O X O * | 1440
1420 O 2 O X O O X 5 X O X O O X * | 1420
1400-O X O 3 ----O X O X O X ----A X --X O --* | ------* ----------------------1400-
1380 O X O X O X O O O X O X O X * X * 1380
1360 O O X O X O X O X B C O | * * X O * 1360
1340 O O * O X O O X O X X * X O * Top1340
1320 * O O X O X O X O X 2 * 1320
1300-----------------------* ------------O --O X O X O X O ----X * ------------1300-
1280 * O X 1 O O 5 O 1280
1260 * O | O X O 1260
1240 * | O X 6 1240
1220 * | O X O Med1220
1200-------------* ----------------------------| --------3 ----X -- ------1200-
1180 * | O X X 1180
1160 * | O X O X 1160
1140 * | O X O X 1140
1120 * | O X 4 X 1120
1100---* --------------------------------------| --------O --O ------------ Bot1100-
1080 * | 1080
1060 | 1060
1040 | 1040
S&P 600 Small Cap [SML] S&P 600 Small Cap Index ($223.490) This is an interesting chart considering small and mi-cap stocks have been the market leaders taking up the slack from ailing large caps. The SML broke a bearish triangle at 226 and long term support for this index doesn't come into play until 209. Plenty of room for this index to fall before finding the bullish support line.
SML Trend Chart
240 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------240
239 239
238 X 238
237 ----------------------------------------------------X O -------------------237
236 X O 236
235 ----------------------------------------------------X O -------------------235
234 * X O 234
233 X * X O X 233
232 X O * X O X O 232
231 X O * X O X O 231
230 X O ----* ------------------------------------------X O X O X -------------230
229 O * X O X O X O 229
228 O * X O X O X O 228
227 O * X O 6 O O 227
226 O * X O X O 226
225 --O --------------* --------------------------------X O X ----O -----------225
224 O * X X O O 224
223 O * X O X o 223
222 O X * X X X O X o 222
221 O X O X * X O X O X O 221
220 --O X O X O ----------------* ----------X O X O X -------------------------220
219 O X O X O * X 5 O X Med219
218 O X O X O * X O 218
217 --O X O X O ----------------------* ----X ---------------------------------217
216 O X O X O * X 216
215 --O X O X O --------------------------* X ---------------------------------215
214 O X 3 X O X X 214
213 O X O X O X O X 213
212 O * O * O X O X 212
211 * * * O X O X 211
210 ----------O ------------------------X O X ---------------------------------210
209 O X X O * 209
208 O X O X X X * 208
207 O X O X O X O X * 207
206 O O X O X X O X * 206
205 --------------O X O X O --------X O X ----------------* -------------------205
204 O X O X O X X O * 204
203 O X O X O X O X * 203
202 O X O X O X O X * 202
201 O O X O X 4 X X * 201
200 ------------------O X O --O X O X ----------* -----------------------------200
199 O X O X O X * 199
198 O X O X O * 198
197 ------------------O X ----O X --------* ------------------------------- Bot197
196 O X O X * 196
195 ------------------O X ----O X ----* ---------------------------------------195
194 O X O X * 194
193 O X O X * 193
192 O O * 192
191 * 191
190 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------190
S&P 400 Mid-Cap [MDY] S & P Mid-Cap 400 (93.25) Broke a double bottom at 94 to give its first sell signal since April. The Bullish Support Line is at 86 with only minor support areas at 92 and 89.
MDY Trend Chart
106 -------------------+-------------------------------------------------------106 -
104 | 104
102 | Top102
100 -------------------+-----------------------------------X ------------------100 -
99 * | X O X 99
98 X * | * X O 6 O 98
97 * X O * X X * X O X O 97
96 O * X O * X O X O * X O X O 96
95 -O --* ----X O ----X O ----X O --* ----------------5 --X O --O ------------95 -
94 O X * X O X 1 X X 2 * X O X O 94
93 O X O X * X O X X O X O X O X X * X O X o 93
92 O X O X O X O X O X O X O X O X O X O * X X O Med92
91 O X O X O X O X O X O X O X O X O X O * X O X 91
90 -O X O X O C O --O X O X O X O --3 --O ----* --X O X ----------------------90 -
89 O O O X * O X O O O * X O 89
88 O X * O | O X 88
87 O * | O X X 87
86 * | O X O X X * 86
85 -------------------+-----------------O X O X O X ----------* --------------85 -
84 | O O X O X * 84
83 -------------------| --------------------O X 4 X ------* ------------------83 -
82 | O X O X * Bot82
81 | O X O X * 81
80 -------------------| --------------------O --O X * ------------------------80 -
79 | O * 79
78 | * 78
77 | 77
Russell 2000 [RUT] Russell 2000 Index (495.38) Was within a couple of points of breaking the double bottom at 490 on Friday. Resistance is at 515, an area the RUT has been unable to surpass on three tries this year. Long term support lies in the 440 area.
RUT Trend Chart
535 * | 535
530 * | 530
525 ----* ----------------------| ----------------------------------------- Top525
520 X * | 520
515 X O * | X * X X 515
510 X O * * | X O X * X O 6 O 510
505 A X * | X O X O * X O X O 505
500 --O --------B O * ----------| ------X 2 X O --* --------X O X O -----------500
495 O X O * X X O O * 5 O O 495
490 O X X O X * X O X O * X 490
485 * O X --X O X O X O --* X --X O ----X ----O X --X --* --X -----------------485
480 O X O X O X O X O X O X 1 X X O X O X O * X Med480
475 --O X O X O X O X O X --X O X O X O X ----O X O X O ----X -----------------475
470 O X O X O O X O X O X O X O X O X * O 3 O X 470
465 O O X O O X O X O X O X O X * O X 465
460 O O X O C O X O O * O X 460
455 O O X O X * * O X 455
450 ----------------------O X O X * ------------------O X --X -----------------450
445 O O * O X O X 445
440 * | O X O X * 440
435 | O X 4 X * Bot435
430 | O X O X * 430
425 ----------------------------| --------------------O X O * -----------------425
420 | O * 420
415 | 415
410 | 410
405 | 405 |
