Jacob, Thanks for your inputs. Your strategy obviously involves trading a lot, which seems like a good plan in this manic-depressive market.
INTC is a tough call. My guess is the stock will continue to outperform. I recall Tom Kurlak beating down the stock a few years ago, it went up about 4 times from the trough to the peak after that.
When you say you like smaller chip makers focused on non-commodity areas, does this include the communication chip maker group?
Perhaps you are right about NOK. Looking back it has performed real well, however, and the management seems very good. If this 3G thing ever gets off the ground it should help.
It seems the risk with your strategy is that prices may not come down to your buy levels. If we all knew where prices would go to of course, we would not have to do this for very long. It has been a trader's market lately for sure. Longer term though I believe most traders have lost out to the buy and hold camp. Being a very skilled trader is probably the best approach.
Regarding CSCO, I sold mine. The decision was based on the bad decisions recently on the part of managment (e.g. lending to dotcoms), market cap, and the fact that they are still trying to get into the optical area, and are getting hammered by JNPR in the high end router area. There is also the argument that at some point it will be all-optical switches that do the job. At 10 though it may be a great buy, not sure.
EMC is being attacked by the likes of CPQ, SUNW, Dell, and NTAP. I am not sure how that turns out, but I think EMC will probably prevail.
How did you resist buying JDSU all this time if you like the company? I recall lots of strong recommendations for it at much higher prices. I am curious in general as to how you came up with you buy numbers. Is it based on TA, FA, or both?
John |
