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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU)

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To: michael97123 who wrote (20476)	6/16/2001 9:07:41 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) of 24042

Mike, I don't suppose you heard the NT CEO say at least 12 months before an upturn which confirmed the comments in Germany of the LU exec who said 12 to 18 months. Two quarters doesn't make it! The market has not really focused on the warnings. If it had, your AMAT would be in the 25-35 range. It will not get there until there is a collective soiling of bottoms marking THE bottom. What things are in place for a recovery? The NASDAQ chart is showing that we are on the downside of this Bear Market rally. I suppose you think that NT's announcement of 10,000 layoffs on top of 20,000 in April will boost consumer confidence and consumer spending. When was the last time AG cut 1/2% 5 times and things were looking worse than 6 month ago. A 6th 1/2% is reasonably likely, but Japan has stayed in recession at 0% interest. Why don't you spend your time here estimating how low quarterly sales will be, how long it will stay at the low, and how soon it will recover from the low. Then you can estimate the valuation the market will put on this performance and arrive at an entry price. When the bottom comes, you will be looking wistfully up at 1650.

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