I particularly like the punch bowl part. You know.. they were all in a game of chicken -vendors and sp's alike - each thinking that if they didn't outbid the others on bandwidth and features they would be left in the dust. They didn't play it conservatively, is what I'm saying, like Lucent played their OC192 agenda.
Okay, so LU played the OC192 (10 Gb/s) card extremely conservatively and they got - as they say in the old neighborhood - whacked. They failed just as miserably by being conservative on the 10 Gig matter as the rest of their peers (including LU, themselves, in other respects) failed by by succumbing to the mirage of downstream demand. LU took the reverse tack, by avoiding the 10Gb model, until it "was" too late for them, and they were in fact left in the dust by Nortel and others.
If we take note of those who seem to be least affected by this whole bubble dissolve, we look to the ILECs, who, most would agree, did the least to over-provision their platforms in anticipation of the coming tsunami. When we think of who it is who still has the wherewithal to spend on new gear and roll out new platforms, it's the ILECs. Not even the MSOs, and T. It's the conservative ILECs. And they are 'still' conservative in this regard. And why shouldn't they be.
As they sit and wait idly to a great extent on the sidelines, their fledgling competitors have either folded shop and opened roadside vegetable stands and hot dog umbrellas, or they are dying off one by one. The ILECs may find that they need to do very little to react to new threats, after all. At least from the motivational angle of fending off the competition.
They may, however, roll out new platforms that reduce their operating overhead and total cost of ownership of the platforms deployed, and the costs associated with providing new services. And, if in the process of rolling out those new platforms they throw a speed bone to users by upping their access rates, and permit them to bundle their services for convenience, then so much the better.
But unlike earlier notions of several years ago when the MSOs were flexing their collective, futuristic muscles with visions of taking phone and access share away from the incumbent telcos, the ILECs will not be taking these measures out of desperation with their backs to the wall. Instead, they will be doing so from the position of power. Like it or not, it's true. |
