The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread Message Board

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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread

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Dec 16 4:00 PM EST

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To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (1257)	6/16/2001 9:51:24 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) of 10065

Wally: Re: "When will we see the effects of the rate cuts?" I would say during Q4. Re: "Business does not appear to taking advantage of lower short-term rates." Bubble created excess demand and excess capacity. These things work themselves out over time. Remember during the mania you would hear that interest rates don't matter to technology stocks? Well they do matter as we have experienced and the other side of the coin still holds true as well in that lower rates will give a boost to the economy although the magnitude of any demand pick up is questionable. Re: "Does the Greenman have anything else in his bag of tricks??? <G>" One more cut and jawboning and that is about it. Re: "Has this" Bear-market-counter-trend-rally" run out of steam???? Seems like it to me." Yes, and although I see more down in trend for the next two weeks I have no opinion on the magnitude of the decline. I would just let the market take you where it takes you for the next few weeks and take it one day at a time. Could be a pause to refresh at slightly higher levels. Could be a retest. A Sox break should occur at some point and I would not buy until that happened. I believe that sentiment is the operative force in that valuation concerns are cancelled out by favorable monetary policy given the high short interest. Right now senitment on Nasdaq is very oversold so that a bounce is in order. Re: "Overseas news goes from bad to worse." That is the trend and nothing is there to change that trend. The trend will continue. We all know what happens in emerging economies when things get rough worldwide. They crack. See 1998. Re: "Don't see any high probability of much positive news......as layoffs continue (Nortell -again)..& warning-season-warnings continue (JDSU & even MacDonalds!)- all stifling consumer confidence?" Trend at end of quarter is to sell ... see December and April. At some juncture, bad news will not matter anymore. The seeds will have been planted for another rally. Re: "Only semi-good news I can think of is no short term threat of inflation on the horizon......." Yes, and thank goodness for that. Re: "Can the US consumer open his wallet & get us out of these doldrums <g>?" I just had a talk with my sister who lives in a technology belt. These folks are scared and they have their friends and relatives scared too. These layoffs are in HUGE and SUDDEN waves and make no internal sense as to who is being laid off and why. This is not a foundation for confidence. When people perceive random things happening to people around them or to themselves, they change their spending behavior. Until this stops and turns, consumers will be reluctant to open their wallets overall. Re: "Perhaps we need more fiscal stimulus than the $ 600 per couple due in the early fall ???" Every little bit helps. If the labor environment is better, then it may help more. If we are still laying folks off, the $600 could go into the piggy bank. Re: "Have a good weekend." You too.

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