The Futures Coming, But It Might Take a While
Hi Ian,
Regarding the potential for a last mile growth spurt, here's some news from the cable industry:
eetimes.com
I'd have to think this is a cause for concern to those who are looking for a rapid return of the growth in telecom components.
Alternately, I just did a search at Ebay for "Cisco". It returned 2,751 items.
search.ebay.com
Nortel returned 409:
search.ebay.com
Lucent? 589 items.
Alcatel? 1,274 items.
[[This, of course is merely the tip of the grey market for telecom equipment. This industry isn't going to recover for a very long time, IMHO. I think we all just have to face the facts, the market of 1999-2000 isn't coming back. ]]
As someone who knows a thing or two about the statement "never pay retail!", I'd have to say that there's a slight inventory problem here. Or as Senator Ev Dirksen was fond of saying: "A billion here and a billion there, and pretty soon we're talkin' real money."
On a slightly different note, regarding JDSU's announcement about a little matter of an inventory writedown... It does catch my eye when a company announces it'll be pro forma profitable, except for inventory writedowns. Heck, we could almost say that about Nortel today, give or take a couple billion. <w>
Best, Ray |
