Don and Chris, would you mind looking at this? It made me think that things are actually getting better, not worse. But I am new at this TA stuff, a recovering long term buy and holder...so I'm not sure if I'm reading things correctly.
First, I just want to thank all of you for everything you have taught me. You are so generous with your knowledge and it has made all the difference in the world to my state of mind.
From what I have studied in TA so far, there are 3 things I see on this chart.
Hope this link works. It's a 12 month qqq chart with OBV and MACD
askresearch.com
1. Looking at the MACD formations and drawing a line from the bottom of the April 4 red lines to the bottom of the red lines where they are now -- well, the red line dip is so much shallower now than before (the MACD red line blocks, not the Bollinger Bands). It appears to be showing an uptrend forming. Sorry I can't draw that line on the chart to show you clearly what I mean.
The TA book I was reading said such a formation indicates increased strength. In other words, the seeming downtrend is in reality hiding a newer uptrend being created. The depth of the red lines in March/April are more severe even though the prices are in the same area. (for example, when qqq was trading at the same price in late March as they are now, the red lines were longer).
2. Also, regarding the red lines on top...the downward trend is clearly seen from last July til Jan of this year. But the last rally made the red lines seem to form a new trendline as they are higher than the ones in January even though the stock prices didn't reach higher prices. In other words, this last rally doesn't appear to be connected to the Jul to Jan rallies. This would indicate to me (from what I've studied) that although the stock prices are lower than the last rally, they have greater stability because of the divergence.
Not that there couldn't be more downside but the meaning would be different this time than before.
3. OBV ticked up and looking at the rest of the chart, it appears to have done that before each rally. I don't know if it means anything since I'm just a beginner -- but it looked hopeful.
Can't thank you enough -- the updates, charts and insights you all provide are just terrific.
Joan |
