Hi Don,
Again, Don, thanks for posting your index updates! They are very valuable (& I certainly appreciate the amount of work, that just the research must entail).
Not predicting again, but if MSFT was to roll over, that would be a significant negative to the NAZ Maybe it has started?
FWIW, I am just a newbie @ figuring out charts... so here is my take on MSFT...
Daily chart PnF: MSFT had a triple bottom breakdown of the 3 box reversal. It sitting right on recent support from April 05/01 & was turned back twice from heavy resistance @ 72.00. Next stop is 61.00 BSL (bullish support line)& 51.00 (support). stockcharts.com
Daily chart: stockcharts.com[w,a]dicayymy[dc][pc5!c21!c50!c200!h.02,.20!f][vc60][iut!Ul14!Lc20!La12,26,9!Lh14,3!Lb14] MSFT appears to have broken down from the daily wedge that was forming, the 5 day ema has also crossed below the 21 day ema & price is now sitting right on the 50 day ema. -DMI crossed over the +DMI & it appears that the ADX has moved north as well (indicating a possible change & strength in the new trend (down))
MACd confirms the ADX & Slo Stoch is just below neutral & still declining. At any rate, since ADX & the price action may be confirming the end of the sideways congestion (& the break down out of the rising bearish wedge,) MSFT's chart does not look good for longs. The probability play is with the shorters.
What I found very interesting about the chart is the negative divergence between the rising price & declining volume & the large increase in volume when the price finally did decline (not good).
The weekly chart confirms the daily chart... stockcharts.com[w,a]wicayymy[df][pc5!c21!c50!c200!h.02,.20!f][vc60][iut!Ul14!Lc20!La12,26,9!Lh14,3!Lb14] Note the turndown in the Slo Stoch (close to 90 - extremely overbought)with the ADX in a classic non-trending mode (below 20 suggest an oscillating indicator)
All FWIW
Regards,
Peter
edit: Just saw your post Lee... Now the bad news for longs. Spending all day looking at stuff, I noticed a recurring theme. Almost any chart dropping has rising ADX and any chart sideways to up has a falling ADX. What this tells me is down is stronger than up forces in this market. ADX doesn't tell direction but it does indicate trend strength and though the falling ADX in the more bullish charts could be predicting a second leg up about to start, I feel it is more likely pointing to the resumption of a down trend in the near to mid future Excellent observation! ...Thanks! |
