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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here
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To: axial who wrote (11438)6/17/2001 2:53:19 PM
From: Rob S.  Read Replies (1) of 12823
 
I agree about the "Tornado" effect of the "confluence of technological phenomena and an up welling of significant demand". I think the timing for the upswing has been stalled. Primarily this is because the flow of capital has been severely constricted and I see no significant improvement at least until the 4th quarter and probably not until the 1st quarter of next year. The other factor is that "2nd generation" systems are just starting to come into the market. By the end of the year there will be several advanced OFDM and multi-mode systems either available commercially or at the stage of field trials. You know the story behind this: standards are being established, chip sets and design infrastructure will be help drive down he costs, and WLAN standardization around OFDM will help to drive the underlying field of FWBA technology to extremely large volumes. But this "coming out" of new generation systems at this time of tight budgets seems to be causing the MMDS players to sit back and wait (evaluate) until things settle down a bit.

What will force the floodgates open will be the combination of pent up consumer demand and the commercial availability of low cost, low hassle systems - an "offer you can't refuse". Sales of FWBA systems has stalled this year - I suspect that overall growth will be no more than half of what was projected by the forecasting agencies. The pick up in demand will return toward the normalized curve in 2002. Of course, what would change the picture from an investment standpoint would be a commitment by one of the major MMDS players. I don't think we will see that before the 4th quarter. And until then it is guess work about which company will come out on top.

This summer should be a time to accumulate stocks in the sector. I like BRZE and Wi-Lan and find ZMBA interesting as a speculative play for their NextNet holdings.
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