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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 307.20+2.0%3:59 PM EST
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To: John Trader who wrote (48048)6/17/2001 7:48:47 PM
From: Cary Salsberg  Read Replies (1) of 70976
 
RE: "I am starting to wonder if I should just start shutting out most of the news and the media, and just start looking at prices and long term trends. It seems the more you read the more you tend to do what they want, which at times like this means to sell at the bottom."

I believe the basis of technology investing is knowing the businesses of the companies you invest in. This knowledge and a fundamental understanding of valuation methods will allow you to stand independent against the market forces that promote buying at the top and selling at the bottom.

I agree with shutting out the media but not the real news. Macroeconomic data and corporate business reports, the ones expressed quantitiatively, create the current context for arriving at stock prices.

I think it is dangerous to decide that bandwidth will be an important future factor (it will be) and then pick a basket of stocks. If you can feel confident about some research house's growth forecast for bandwidth, that is a start. A forecast such as 50% per year compounded for 10 years with a -50% next year is not acceptable.

In this uncertain environment, I have restricted my new purchases to companies I feel safe with. They have fundamental technology that doesn't depend on a particular end market and they have competitve advantages that are very difficult to overcome.
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