<<To reiterate, when you (they, us, whatever) see no reason to rally, I want to be long. You want sheer dismalness?! Try early Apr, 2001.>>
Well, sure. But then again, I saw no reason to be long in February or March, either. And I wasn't alone by any stretch. The news was horrible all along. But had you gone long against me/us then, you'd've been wrongly long. So to me, it's a question of "at what point have people been seeing ONLY down/up/whatever" that I wanna fade them. I don't have much experience in that. I certainly don't think the overall market mood has been really negative for long right about now. But at the moment? No one sees bullishness at all.
Mind you, I also don't think we're suddenly crashing to new lows. I see no reason for that, either. I expect a relief rally this week, too. So which part of me do you wanna bet against? <g>
The serious question from this? How do you determine that there's enough sentiment in one direction to go against the grain? I agree it's bearish talk right now. . . but is it excessive enough? Does that factor in to your reading of the charts? Or, when you're playing the shortterm moves rather than intermediate or longterm. . . do different rules apply?
the freep |
