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Strategies & Market Trends : Precious Metals mutual funds (gold, silver, PGMs)
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To: Dan P who wrote (579)6/17/2001 11:32:24 PM
From: Larry S.  Read Replies (1) of 972
 
Dan, et al,

Hamilton's essay was interesting. His conclusion that the POG/XAU ratio is a better measure than the difference (spread) between the POG and the XAU is supportive of the ratio I have been posting here for the last couple of years. However, it is not clear to me that the interpretation (see post 10, I think) of GMI/POG ratio has as much data behind it as Hamilton presented for POG/XAU and it is not clear to me that it is adequate to provide confidence in its use as a predictor of where the market is headed. If I ever find time to do it, I will put the data I have posted in a spread sheet and see what I can make of it. In any event, the GMI is a more pure PM index than the XAU so I will keep posting.

FWIW, the CRB index was the topic discussed in the Commodities Corner in this week's Barron's. It was observed that it is deteriorating and suggested that it may not bottom until 2002. It also included a negative comment about the POG.

The GMI/POG ratio for this week::

On 6/14 the Barron's GMI was 339.67, up from the previous week's value of 322.64. With the POG also up to 272,.20 (6/15), the ratio was up to 1.25. The ratio a year previously was 1.01.

Cheers,
Larry
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