<FONT COLOR=RED> AS YOU PARTICIPANTS ON THIS BELOVED THREAD PROBABLY KNOW BY NOW; I REGARD THE EXPRESSION "CONVENTIONAL WISDOM" AS AN OXYMORON.
Do please see: biz.yahoo.com
"CONVENTIONAL WISDOM" Has the high published but sparsely contributed to target for AMD common for the next 12 months as $36/share and the low target at $35/share for AMD common. Seldom, in my memory, has there been such an apparently uniform consensus on this issue. As we all know, or suspect, consensus is frequently, at least lately, a formula for disaster. However, there is an emerging body of evidence that some very large "money" has been progressively buying more and more AMD common. Are these guys ( the ones with all of this AMD directed money ) ill-informed buffoons with OPM taking unwarranted gambles and betting on themselves to be wrong so that they become so openly wrong that they will have to soon seek employment with smaller remuneration and at other firms where their poor judgement is yet to be exposed? Certainly this is possible...but I do not think so. Are these guys ( or gals [ let us be politically correct ] more subtle in their approach having done the "beat the bushes" kind of research ( you know, the kind of research where you do not call the company in question but, rather, you call its suppliers, equipment sources, end users, vendors etc. and any other contacts that they have that can give an insightful "handle" short of "inside information" [ which, as we all know is illegal ] and are finding that that the "conventional wisdom" earnings projections are turning out to be so understated as to, perhaps be extremely pessimistic and, perhaps, stupid? ) I do not know; but I certainly hope so. BTW, when I was an analyst many years ago ( and I believe that I was never [ except, maybe, extremely briefly ] an ANALyst ) these were among the kinds of research avenues that I personally pursued.
Such research can often be misleading and totally wrong. It is sporadic in its reliability. It can, however, reveal genuine patterns far earlier than they become well known.
What will actually turn out to be the real truth? I sincerely do not know. I do, however think that over the next month, at least some of what is to emerge over the much longer term, may be revealed.
Patient ( and hopefully insightful ) Regards,
DARBES |
