In re: POLL ABOUT VALUATION (or: do I take abacus to data?)
1.Never; I'm not good at it, I use third party evaluations, and then let my enthusiasm run riot, and thus have entirely skipped the valuation ...discussions (I won't characterize these pissing contests out of the respect I have for you and Pirah) on the subject. Not that this subject has no place on the thread, but when the writing shifts to:
"PEG implies that a company's price should be proportional to Earnings and Growth.
Or, P = K * E * G
If we assume a reasonable degree of rationality so that people will pay dollars today in expectation of future dollars tomorrow at a rate of return... then with very few simplifying assumptions it is entirely straight forwards to demonstrate the relationship
P = K * E
I don't have the time now but later I can go into it in detail. The bottom line is that this "K" is a function of growth rate already, and the relationship between "K" and "G" is geometric, not linear. Thus we can't just factor "G" out and state
P = A * E * G where A is K/G"
my head hurts wondering who k is (Kafka?) and my eyes glaze over. I may not have better things to do at the time but boy do I turn to them quickly. I much prefer Id, Tek, uf, or Dancealot, all of whom seem to have partly or totally abandoned the stage.
The truth is we're all going further underwater, and even broke and the thread has broken out with subject matter that has the feel, to me, of learned discussions in the past concerning how many angels could dance on the head of a pin? Hey! The horse has left the barn! Many of us already own these stocks (which used to be discussed here). If the point of this is to tell me not to buy them * due to valuation concerns, well, that'll make me feel even worse than I do and that, frankly, is not what I need right now.
In short, I prefer discussions of company news (as on the Ramsey Q thread) or even humor, to these droll, dry-as-dust valuation discussion. But that's only me and I'm sure these discussions are important and even vital to other readers. I apologize for the heat and length of my rant. -L.
* see your own Will Rogers quote for the best counsel concerning the ownership of stocks (anybody know why they call them "securities"; insecurities is a far better word, at least to me.) |
