Is the glass almost empty or waiting to be filled? And how empty does it have to get before the rest evaporates? At least Corvis can't be shorted now. I did not feel as optimistic as some when I attended the shareholders meeting earlier this year, and like many of you out there I hope and hope that Corvis will announce a new customer soon (preferably not Lucent :)
But I will pick up more corv, rbak, jdsu, jnpr, extr, and newp for the long term.
New York Times today wrote that the "Once Bright Future of Optical Fiber Dims". "Few people have fast internet connections, and prices are rising for those who do. Computer users with common dial-up internet connections find their web browsers stalled, and people trying to make regular phone calls complain increasingly of busy signal." We may never light all the dark fiber in the ground, but we will certainly continue to find ways to use our networks more efficiently, and that has to be a combination of smart software and optical switches. And when the economy starts turning around, and even earlier when Windows XP brings more demand for speed to our desktops, there will be demand to light fiber to our doors, and to manage the long distance networks with efficiency and speed.
My son came home from college a month ago and has suffered loudly at the adjustment from the always on school network to the dial-up connection. Our children, raised with a mouse in their right hands and used to high speed connections at school, will not tolerate the slow speeds of 56K modems long. |
