Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 301.11

+6.9%

Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (48128)	6/19/2001 12:03:22 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (4) of 70976

Hi Cary, Your call for these stocks to fall back to retest has been partially correct so far. If anyone thinks that new lows can't occur - well then check out the fiber / optic sector: JDSU will put a chill in your soul. If students of this sector simply turn back the pages to Oct 7/8 1998 you'll see a fast ,nasty final shake out that launched the greatest bull market in semi equip and to a greater degree many other sectors. SO NO ONE SHOULD SAY IT CAN'T HAPPEN - truth is it has and can be done again. I don't think the business environment is as hopeless as what it was back then. Primary reason for holding this opinion is the level of "technology buys" will provide a better cushion" than they did in 1998. Back then, 300mm was a concept, who's time had not yet come - Intel is ramping up now and actually making them - this becomes a "must keep up" for AMD and others - Siemens,Motorola?. The now acceptance of copper interconnects represents a real technology buy that didn't exist back then either.These buy themselves won't get us to past glory days - but to use Rick Hills words " they represent a level of activity that represents "Maintenance". Read that to mean you keep your good people - give them some days off - don't "next day" a thing and watch margins/receivables and work hard on R&D. Be sure that when expansion ocurrs again you have a better mouse trap and the sales force is already trained. In short times are tough ,but keep your head up, attitude aggressive, and get strong. Just plain good management. This I believe is a better scenario than 98 had, as expansion stopped and there were no real technology upgrades that were reality. I believe this difference will provide a support level that salvages the consolidation phase we popped up into this last 60 days.I don't think we get a retest of new lows in the semi equip sector- we saw that last October. The consolidation we've patiently gone thru since then will result in institutional buying before new lows occur and has added great technical strength.JMHO I may very well be wrong.The key here is that ALL perspectives can/should and must be entertained.The bickering and emotional charges don't have a place here ,if we collectively are to value multiple perspectives AND THEN FINANCIALLY BENEFIT FROM THE COLLECTIVE SHARING OF VIEWPOINTS. I've read and valued these threads too long to bicker over positions. Heck I've been wrong so many times it's embarassing.I'm just hard headed enough to wait my screwups out.I think that if proper balance was the rule - we'd all have to say that most of the stuff is a great buy in here and by all means Mr. Market can make it cheaper. New lows? I don't thinbk so - will it look like it - YOU BETTER EXPECT IT. Let's just hope we don't have a whipping coming to us like the poor folks over on the JDSU thread are getting. Me I'm thinking I got my lickin in last October and the time duration should provide some technical strength that isolates me from new lows - then again I remember October 7/8 1998. Darn near killed me and then it proceeded to pay me back in aces and spades. I think the key is to keep perspective. These prices are deals - in the big picture of time - past next month. Keep some powder dry always - for the buy of the century. Be patient and our world in the future WILL REQUIRE MORE IC's - but you can't quit and you can't let the broker make you sell. There are times when you just have to know what you know.Hold with confidence and don't let some Ivey League educated journalist conformist tell you what you know is ignorant. In short let's stay strong and get rich over time - This too shall pass. I'm jumpin off my soap box - Good night friends. Bob

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next