IC Insights says chip market will fall by 21% in 2001, but could tumble by 28% in 'worst case' scena
Semiconductor Business News
(06/18/01 21:16 p.m. EST)
SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- It appears to be a somewhat unanimous verdict: the semiconductor industry is facing its worst downturn in 2001.
IC Insights Inc. here today reduced its forecast for the worldwide IC industry, saying the business will show a 21% decline in 2001 over 2000. In total, the worldwide IC business will drop from $177 billion in 2000, to 139.2 billion in 2001, according to a new report from the market research firm.
IC Insights' "best case" scenario for the IC market in 2001 is a 15% decline from 2000. The "worst case" scenario is a 28% drop, the company said.
Assuming that the U.S. is not in an outright recession, IC Insights still expects a quarterly sequential increase in the IC market of 6% to occur in the third quarter of 2001. Moreover, an 11% sequential jump is forecast for the fourth quarter of this year, the company said.
If the IC market follows a path similar to our forecast, the IC market in the second half would still register only a moderate 4% increase, as compared to the like period a year ago.
Nonetheless, the new forecast marks the largest decline for the worldwide chip business on record, surpassing the 20% slide in 1985. Moreover, IC unit volumes are forecasted to shrink by 11% in 2001, making it only the second largest decline on record.
In March, the market research firm said the IC market in 2001 would show a 9% decline in revenues from $128 billion in 2000. But at the time, IC Insights called for an 18% increase in integrated circuit sales in 2002.
In its new forecast released today, IC Insights believes the global IC market will display a 16% increase to reach $162.0 billion in 2002. |
