I sold some CCMP and got in the July 55 puts, missed adding to NVDA which is beginning to act mortal finally, 7 point range already ufb.
I think Fed is gonna have to cut .50 or risk a disappointed herd of sheep, unless they can somehow make it look like they only cut .25 because things aren't so bad. How many placebo's can they give the clowns before they figure out they're not feeling any better?
Eight Bond Dealers Expect Half-Point Interest Rate Cut June 27
2001-06-19 02:20 (New York)
New York, June 19 (Bloomberg) -- Eight of the 25 bond dealers
who trade directly with the Federal Reserve expect the central
bank to cut its interest-rate target by a half-percentage point
for a sixth time this year, up from three at the start of the
month.
Six of the Wall Street economists revised their forecasts up
from a quarter-point reduction in the fed funds target, following
reports showing no sign of rebound in economic growth. The Fed
itself said growth was little changed or worse in April and May,
and production at the nation's factories slumped for an eighth
consecutive month. Policy-makers next meet June 26-27.
The Fed ``wants to keep the economy from falling into a
ravine until tax cuts and the first five easings'' ignite growth,
said Drew Matus, an economist at Lehman Brothers Inc.
Lehman on Thursday revised its forecast to a half-point cut
from a quarter-point. The investment bank expects a rate increase
in the first quarter of 2002.
Whether the Fed lowers rates by a half-point in one move, or
in two-quarter point moves between this month and August, 15 of
the primary dealers expect fed funds to drop no lower than 3.5
percent. Six expect the target to bottom out at 3.75 percent,
while three see fed funds at or below 3.25 percent by year-end.
Salomon Smith Barney did not give forecasts beyond this month.
Rates that have already dropped by 2.5 percentage points this
year to 4 percent probably won't stay low long. Nineteen of 24
economists see the central bank raising interest rates in 2002,
with nine firms predicting that process to begin by June.
The results of the survey are as follows:
FIRM TARGET TARGET TARGET 2002
6/27 8/21 LOW INCREASE?
ABN AMRO Inc. 3.75 3.50 3.50 Q2
BNP Paribas 3.75 3.50 3.50 Q3
Banc of America Securities 3.75 3.75 3.75 Q1
Banc One Capital Markets 3.75 3.75 3.75 Q2
Barclays Capital 3.75 3.75 3.75 Q3
Bear, Stearns & Co. 3.75 3.50 3.25 Q3
CIBC World Markets 3.75 3.50 3.50 No
Credit Suisse First Boston 3.75 3.50 3.50 No
Daiwa Securities America 3.50 3.50 3.50 Q2
Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown 3.75 3.75 3.75 Q2
Dresdner Kleinwort Benson 3.50 3.50 3.50 Q2
Fuji Securities 3.75 3.50 3.50 Q3
Goldman, Sachs & Co. 3.75 3.50 3.50 No
Greenwich Capital Markets 3.75 3.50 3.50 Q4
HSBC Securities (USA) 3.75 3.50 3.50 Q3
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. 3.50 3.50 3.50 Q3
Lehman Brothers, Inc. 3.50 3.50 3.50 Q1
Merrill Lynch & Co. 3.50 3.50 3.50 Q3
Morgan Stanley Dean Witter 3.75 3.75 3.75 Q1
Nesbitt Burns Securities 3.50 3.25 3.00 Q4
Nomura Securities Intl. 3.75 3.50 3.50 No
SG Cowen Securities 3.75 3.75 3.75 Q1
Salomon Smith Barney 3.50 N/A N/A N/A
UBS Warburg 3.50 3.50 3.50 No
Zions First National Bank 3.75 3.50 3.25 Q3 |
