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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here
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To: Raymond Duray who wrote (11475)6/19/2001 12:08:09 PM
From: Crossy  Read Replies (1) of 12823
 
re: sunk costs. LMDS etc.

Ray,
let me address your statements

1)The issue of sunk costs is situative. The real issue that you intified is debt. If it's present it has to be serviced. The most prominent example of sunk costs that have NOT to be serviced with debt is the PSTN itself.

2) LMDS/MMDS .. I'm no enthusiast and I do not ecnourage investments in all those shaky equipment suppliers populating the NAZ nowadays (when you got negative gross margins on a supposedly "promising" technology that is actually being deployed then I begin shaking my head). You are surely aware of the fact that MMDS is not obstructed in such a way by trees or bad weather conditions as LMDS or FSO. This is opinion vs. opinion and I do not view the "enthusiasm" of others for Brazil. MY view is that it is one way to bypass the last mile toll, nothing more nothing less

3) what you applaud in xDSL (the negation of the always on inherent nature) is something that I can understand from their strategic positioning but pls. don't expect me to actually embrace this. I view this move as TYPICAL "bellhead" exactly what people like me disdain so much.

Yes, I'm a fan of markets, of freedom to choose. In case of a monopoly (even a former or near monopoly) it's getting difficult for me. For long distance voice the market was always there - as soon as the local bell company was ordered to interconnect to everyone I choose. I view the current focus on the last mile (especially where data is involved) as the experimentation phase. One way or the other concepts, ways will emerge that will point to feasable solutions (from a user's perspective !) that are also sustainable long term (unlike many a CLEC strategy that was clearly short term oriented)

Maybe when more individuals turn into investors you will start seing situations where the whole concepts of the last mile will be turned upside down. Imagine home associations in the suburbs banding together for FTTx and the fiber would go straight into a CO and a network peering point at a lower level. Of course you need some standardized interconnection modularity (on a physical as well as logical/virtual level) IMHO to facilitate this but in this way the individuals would actually OWN their last mile. Ultimately you would get a lambda to the home. I do know we are away from this endpoint that I envisage by an order of magnitude but maybe we'll be ending there sooner that most may think..

rgrds
CROSSY
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