Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 260.77

+0.2%

Dec 24 12:59 PM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (48186)	6/19/2001 3:14:09 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (2) of 70976

> PS: I understand btb, so no need for anyone to educate me on it LOL! Is it just me or has this thread just become more hostile. Anyway, if memory serves me correctly, even in the cases that btb number went up the "wrong" way, stocks still responded positively. But I think this time there is a caveat (yes I know...) Just as we did not hit the historical low valuations on the the bottom, I don't think we'll hit the cyclical highs either. I think enough people have come expect to double and triple their fortunes by buying at the bottom of the cycle and selling at the top, that while the business cycle has not changed, the stock price cycle has. I read the IC insight's forecast on a couple of threads today. And while it talks of recovery in 2002, if you look at the absolute numbers they are forecasting, they are still lower than the previous top. So valuations remain an issue, unless you think 2003 will be as good as H2 '99. Don't get me wrong, I'll buy on the way and will enjoy it as much as anyone. And I've been long a few semicaps and chips. But I will be much quicker to take profits. For the next few years, I think this will be a traders market. Sun Tzu

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