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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED

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To: RR who wrote (37969)6/19/2001 5:35:23 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (2) of 65232
 
as the absurdity of 2ndHalf Recovery becomes clear
stocks will cascade back down to March lows
conviction will gather steam
each time pathetic econ data is presented, "seen the worst" comments follow
like crying wolf, it loses its credibility
the entire world economy is sliding into a recession
my professional take is it will get worse before better

asia will not recover until Japan rebuilds
I expect Japan to enter a recognized depression, if not already in it
apparent that brokerage houses are full of feces
the spring rally was a bonafide bear counter-trend rally
the reality is one of mfg depression, service side deterioration, still growing unemployment, with continued consumer spending for now despite terrible confidence
housing is holding up the economy, and by Sept that might lose its force also
the industrial utilization figures last week are a serious warning call
NBC Nightly News appropriately devoted full ten minutes to the story
they mentioned the 2nd Half Recovery and its erosion of that expectoration

better times are coming in November at the earliest
more likely by April 2002
the US economy is too weak to pull the entire world economy out this time
it succeeded in 1998, NOT THIS TIME

in March I predicted two dozen top techname stocks to be single digit
JDSUniphaz flirted yday under 10
SUNW Micro is close
plenty of others to follow, havent the details and dont care

firms with loaded debt remain as selling targets
TQNT Triquint has been cut in half in four weeks
chip sector book:bill will likely remain under 0.50 for a while

"seen the worst" is pure GLUTE SHOOT

good luck, and protect your arses

I have decided to attempt to return to Boston before ski season
homesick, rebuilding the spinal cord
/ jim willie
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