Zeev, speaking of down, it looks like Stochastics are scraping bottom here:
bigcharts.com
It think that's a record for a url length.
Anyway, for me the question is how long they can hold this spring down before it releases some energy upwards to relieve the oversold condition. MACD is still heading down, but stochastics are much more reliable short term indicators.
The SOXX is getting pretty close to 575, and you may be correct that the SOXX may bounce off the B2B report initially. It would seem that we need something to release some of the built-up pressure. If we drop to 1940 Thursday before the release, maybe we'll get a .618 Fib re-trace of the move from 2057 to relieve some of the pressure initially before continuing our drop. That would take us to just above 2000.
That could be accomplished with a futures mark up of 40-points Friday plus some follow through before a close below the 1975-1988 level. We could drop Monday to test the 1940 level, bounce again to 1975 or so on Tuesday and Wednesday AM, and drop below 1940 Wednesday PM after the Fed. That could set up 1850 for the 28th and a bounce with the help of PPT (I don't see how 1850 can hold without their help).
We could also do a .382 re-trace of the move from 2185 to 1940, which would take us to around 2030, which is turning into a bit of a resistance level now. That does not seem as likely.
Either way, I'm trying to see how 1850 can happen in your window of time. I'm thinking June 28-29 is more apt to be a low than the following week due to cycles.
I think we'd have to reach 1850 on a moderate daily decline, not in one fell swoop of 100-points. 1775 is very close, and there is a gap there, and 1636 is just below. That means the Fed meeting can drop us, but not like a rock. Maybe 40-60 points each day on the 27th and 28th.
Intersted in your thoughts. |
