Hi tinkershaw; Re DDR and the death of RDRAM...
As usual, another retreat in a long line of retreats by Rambus supporters. It wasn't that long ago that Rambus longs were saying "Can you show me just one DDR prototype?" Then Micron showed a prototype, and they said "but that is on an over-sized motherboard, can you show me a prototype on a regular sized board?" Then regular sized prototypes showed up, and they came up with "but is there any place where we can buy one?" And when the boards started showing up at obscure vendors and PriceWatch, they retreated to "can you show me one major supplier with a DDR board?", and when Compaq and HP started producing them, they retreat now to "but have they shipped 1 million yet?"
I have no idea how many HP and Compaq are shipping, nor do I have the slightest idea how to find out. But the sequence is pretty clear. DDR is making progress. Sorry that you can't have an instantaneous production ramp, but that would be, well, stupid. DDR is an evolutionary product, not a revolutionary one, and replacement curve between it and SDRAM will be the traditional "S" curve. Most of us are predicting that the mid point of the curve (i.e. 50% penetration) will be late next year. That's consistent with the market penetration and ramp rates achieved so far.
The sequence is pretty obvious to those who've watched Rambus longs retreat from every previous position regarding DDR's viability, cost and industry support. If you want to believe that DDR is a figment of my imagination, be my guest. And why don't you buy some more RMBS, while you're at it, I hear that stocks at new 52-week lows make great investments, especially after they've just been convicted of FRAUD in obtaining the majority of their income.
-- Carl |
