Brother Ray - Yup, talking past each other...
Where we started was the question of demand for BBFWA. The narrowband killer app is voice, for sure.
If you're saying (not trying to put words in your mouth, but I think you've stated this position before) that the one and only app for wireless is voice, (everything else leaving questionable margins and economics) then I see your point.
The beginning of the discussion was the accuracy of those "research" reports, and whether the stated demand ("The Tornado") would in fact occur.
The advent of coded OFDM RF networks will give carriers a qualitative and quantitative advantage over older LOS RF networks - a doubling of capacity (ie., 3 bits/HZ) and the ability to reach better than 80% of the customers in an urban area - at a price that is more than twice the cost of existing infrastructure (my estimate).
The question is... is there sufficient demand to drive the prices for coded OFDM infrastructure (including CPE) down to the point of universal accessibility (and desirability)?
IMO, the answer is maybe, not certainly. But I wouldn't want to rely on any of those Cahner's In-Stat Report projections as the basis for my investment. If the demand doesn't materialize, the effects will be harsh.
But the other question the investor has to ask is: what has motivated Cisco, TI, Breezecom, Intersil, Broadcom, Infineon, and many others to spend hundreds of millions of dollars, and expend significant resources and effort in the field of BBFW?
Have they all lost it? Our contrarian view would lead one to suspect that the many RF companies in the OFDM Forum, BWIF, ETSI BRAN, HiperLAN2 and 802.11x - are all possessed of some lemming-like urge. Do you really believe that is the case?
The question is - what's going on? There are contradictory facts to support opposing views.
Regards,
Jim |
