Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: chowder who wrote (91626)	6/20/2001 9:24:40 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) of 95453

"THE" chart that put a fork in this Oilpatch Cycle ~ It absolutely never ceases to amaze me - how late to the party the "chihuahua briggade" continually is...and also how they lap up the spoon-fed pablum from the pom-pom waving analysts here. Scan the various Oilpatch threads on SI and other than noticing that the volume of posts has dramatically dropped in lockstep to shareprices of late (no more hot lists VBG)- notice that the vast majority of Oilpatch Bulls are now "Bears" !?!?!? - whodathunkit ? ... these are THE same exact posters who were bashing us for calling a Nat Gas E&P top into the last week of December last year (roflmao) ? ... these were the SAME/EXACT posters who chastised us for cashing out completely (leaving not a single share long in the 'patch) on this most recent run to OSX 135. ...these were the SAME/EXACT posters who were "10 Ft Tall & Bulletproof" - but who now "say" (vbg) they are shorting these same stocks after riding them down 30%+ off their highs ? ... these were the SAME/EXACT posters who said we were missing the boat when we pointed to the early indicator exit signs of rising API/AGA inventory builds into a slowing Global economy - with it only needing a slowing Asian economy to crumple the prior Oilpatch cycle. Now; since technicals and "charting" seems to have replaced the "10 Ft Tall & Bulletproof" FUNDAMENTALS in the patch (VBG) - maybe it's time for us to give the 10 Ft Tall & Bulletproof Chihuahua/Fantastik-Plastic crowd a freebie: - well; here it is ! 170.12.99.3 Everything ANYONE & EVERYONE will need to know on how to trade the patch for the rest of this cycle is indicated by the AGA charts shown on that link & if you chart Crude Oil builds on the same basis... 1. On that Raymond James chart you will notice that the AGA supply buids have crossed over last years 2000 trend line & have done so with a very sharp uptrend move. If you did a traditional technical chart on the supply builds- the stochastics (both fast & slow), MACD's, Williams Indicators, RSI's, Moving averages et al - would be strongly supportive of a still continuing bullish move in the supply build trend. - the sharp traders reacted early to this trendline break - due to the degree of sharpness in it's move. 2. On the chart, the trendline is indicating a coming break thru the 1999 supply level trendline - when & if that happens - it's game, set & match for this cycle shareprice-wise and institutional investors (those still left) will exit in hoards - trampling all remaining chihuahua's on their stampede to the exits. The savy cyclical traders allready have exited here - as they should have; as waiting for a clear reversal and an actual break thru not just 2000 supply levels; but 1999's as well; will signal to even the most "perma" of Bulls that the story has ended & that there's no more sizzle to sell in this new-paradigm/Energy Crisis story and commodity prices will begin to correct sharply. In my humble opinion; Raymond James analysts just - BLEW IT ! ... they've missed the glaring fundamental indicator that their own damn chart is SCREAMING and indicating here ! - that you allready should have exited & sold and that the very alarming & negative supply build trend is clearly still intact ! These guys are - MORONS and they get the "L-A-M-E O" award du jour for that report... How could anyone read that supply build chart & see anything except pain & risk ahead astounds me ? ... absolute M-O-R-O-N's ~ Once again... you heard it "here" & not "over-there" under the porch (vbg) ~ - we don't need to be on no stinkin' hot list either... it's about makin' bacon here; not back slapping mutual self-aggrandizement and swapping fish stories. Ciao ~

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