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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread
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To: Pseudo Biologist who wrote (1215)6/15/1997 9:55:00 PM
From: Vector1   of 9719
 
Max, I am interested in the scientific papers. I haven't been able to come up with what I consider a reliable source for the percentage of new patients in each category. Even if however, the low grade disease is 30% CLTR will be a huge winner if Bexxar continues to show stong efficacy in fighting the disease. Where do you think the threrapy will be priced. Essentially we are looking at a disease where conventional chemo is not particularly effective. My guess is were talking revenue of $10,000 per patient. Even assuming only 25,000 patients treated each year thats $250 million in revenue with prob gross margins at 90%. Even after G&A and marketing and R&D were talking valuation in excess of a billion dollars. The current valuation is about $100 million. Given the early results I like the risk reward. Do you agree that the early response rates on the low grade and transformed low grade disease are remarkable. I've seen so many studies talk about response rates and tumor shrinkage in other cancer trials. Unfortunately resonse can mean al lot of things and tumor shinkage does not necessarily mean increased survival rates. Conplete remission of disease is unusual in my experience. If these patients continue to be disease free we may have something really exciting here. The whole technology of conjugating a radiopharma to a momoclonal antibody could become very important in cancer treatment.
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