Ed, In your practice, which dosage do you prescribe the most? And is it the most popular dosage nationwide?
I think your estimate of 27,000 scripts/week may be a touch on the high side. In the last 2 weeks of April, the weekly scripts written were about 18,500. Someone posted earlier here the numbers for 2 weeks in May, the first week was about 18,000 again, the second week was significantly lower because of a holiday. These are actual data, so I would use them to make estimates.
For Q2, assume the average weekly scripts at 19,000, and also assume the net to Vivus/dose of $17, then product revenues will come in at about $25 million. This compares to $27.8 M for Q1. However, the Q1 figure included 2.6 M for products shipped in 12/96. If you agree with my estimates, we'll see no growth in Q2 earnings report which will not bode well for its stock.
Regards,
Tom |
