"What does it look like to YOU (you owe me at least THAT much...)."
No problem :-).
First off, I slightly disagree with the comment you made about GE on the Kahuna thread... I agree that GE doesn't look toppy, but at the same time, it's way above it's 20day bb - bb's at approx 64 and stock closed 66 1/8. RSI (9 day, I think, hard to tell with this cheap program) is 88. That signals overbought to me. DMI says that it's in a definite uptrend though, so I would hesitate to put it until it slows a little.
Second, it's hard for me to tell exact numbers on your chart, since I don't have anything fancy to import it into.
I see 4 places where GE touched, crossed, or was really darn close to it's upper Raff channel line: Late Feb '95, Mid Feb '96, Mid Nov '96, and now. Feb '95 went from ~28 to ~25 (10%) in about 1/2 month. Feb '96 ~41 to ~37 (10%) in 1.5 months. Nov '96 (I've actually got stats for this) the highest close was 52.5 on 11/14, and low close was 46.5 on 12/16, a little over 10%. Today - nobody knows.
Based on this, I'd say that GE is due for a correction, probably a 10% correction, and probably soon. Correction may take a month or so to get the full 10%. I don't think GE has alot of steam left, figure it may close at 66 or so this week (complete guess), but it would only have to correct to 60 to get the 10%.
However, there was 1 year from first "touch" to second "touch," and then 10 months from second "touch" to third touch. Only 7 months from third touch to today. It's taking less and less time for each surge... don't know what this means, but it does pique my curiosity.
Sorry that I don't have that much to offer... Please feel free to criticize what I said... I'm still pretty new at this.
-Mike |
