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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory

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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (4116)	6/20/2001 10:44:20 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) of 33421

I'm thinking the euro is looking stronger, and may move...! Well, I would hope so... The USD has been kicking its butt for weeks now (and kicking the hell out of US corporate profits overseas). quotewatch.com But will it just be a dead cat bounce in the Euro, or a sign that the ECB is not going to permit it to reach new lows? How much intevention can they implement against the hedge funds when there is no sign of major structural reforms? quotewatch.com Europe has some serious problems. The Irish are becoming resentful of the machinations of Germany and France towards directing the course of the EU. On top of that, Germany is expecting zero growth in the 2nd quarter, instead of the 2% positive growth they were anticipating: Two more leading German think-tanks on Wednesday said they believe the government's target of 2 per cent increase in GDP this year looks unlikely to be achieved, adding to the gloom over the growth prospects of the euro-zone's largest economy..... .....The comments come after Werner MÃ¼ller, the economics minister, on Tuesday said Germany could register zero growth in the second quarter of the year. news.ft.com And yes, the US may be facing Zero growth as well, but the US is running a surplus, a luxury available to neither Europe or Japan. And Europe is facing TREMENDOUS social unfunded liabilities because they failed to restructure their pension programs in a manner similar to the US. For example, I heard the other day that France is facing unfunded liabilities equal to 200% of its annual GDP. It could be that a deep recession might just be what the politicians in Europe are hoping for, since it would make it easier to centralize control over economic policies that most of the EU members want to control themselves. Hawk

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