| This is the first time I've heard discussion of 2002 cap ex plans. I kept expecting INTC to cut 2001 capex, and it didn't happen. All the big semis have now spent most of their capex budget for the year, and there is zero chance of those budgets increasing from now till yearend. No good news there, but none is expected. So, now the stocks start to pay attention to 2002 capex guesstimates, only 6 months away. As INTC says, it depends on end-demand for chips, which in turn depends on macro conditions, which no one has any visibility on. If demand doesn't come back, then Intel announces 2002 capex much lower than 2001, the rest of the industry follows suit, and the semiequips come down to the usual valuations we see at troughs. OTOH, if chip demand does come back, then we've seen the lows already, and I totally miss taking a position this downturn. |
