SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Mike Buckley who wrote (43709)6/21/2001 2:45:01 AM
From: Stock Farmer  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
Mike: >> No, that's not the context of my comment. The context was that John was selling at one price with the expectation of buying back at a lower price. For me, that's market timing. <<

Aaah... now I understand. Let me restate.

Let's say I view the continued holding of an equity through a prolonged period of accelerated capital depreciation to be a bad idea. So I sell to prevent capital loss. Others may hang on and write covered calls to try and recover the loss. I can point to at least one recent time period in recent history where selling would clearly have been a superior strategy <ng>, so there is practical merit to at least contemplating this alternative.

One may rationally decide to terminate an LTBH position.

There is a possibility that I may undertake a further activity to establish a new LTBH position, either immediately or after an interval of even substantial duration.

I suggested that these two activities in sequence could be viewed in the larger context as "LTBH (interrupted). To which you responded "Market Timing".

Analysis.

I am selling a stock based on a decision to end a holding period.

Later, I may make a different decision and buy it back. Or I may never buy it back. But this second decision changes the nature of the first one? No.

I fail to accept that future decisions not yet made influence the nature of a decision today. The present is not yet characterized by the future. Or at least not in any way that benefits me now.

So, either all voluntary terminations of a LTBH position based upon rational expecation of future events are "Market Timing" in the instant, or none of them are.

John.

P.S I do realize the subtle distinction between speculation and investment. Which does have to do with time (decision frequency relative to the nyquist frequency of information).
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News