Zeev, two points: (1) EXDS. Even if they have cash flow for now, in their business there is another danger which could sink them fast. I am more familiar with the old economy analogy, but I think it is relevant here too.
If a trucking company, for example, has rumors of cash flow problems around it, shippers move very quickly to move their cargo so it is not stranded in Butte when the trucker's fuel bill didn't get paid. This "run to the exits" has taken down many a shipper, even when the rumors were not true, or the situation was not as dire as predicted. Customers cannot take the risk and no shipping manager wants to be the last client - he would be toast in his company if everyone else got out before him. This cascading effect becomes a self-fullfilling prophesy and the shipper often goes down while holding up his books showing black ink.
Isn't the analogy reasonable for web-hosting? I can't imagine any company is going to put its internet presence at risk if EXDS is in even the slightest danger. The lawyers are even now reviewing the contracts and advising the clients to "be prudent" and consider moving the host site. Look for Dell and others to benefit, because I believe EXDS will soon see a flood of client exits and/or litigation on its contract terms as clients try to exit.
EXDS, the trucking company of the new millenium!
(2) I know there were always proponents of TA, even during the roaring 1997-2000 period. But with momo running, it was easy to ignore them if you didn't like what they said. Now, I believe, everyone is looking and listening to TA. It is the gospel at this moment, which makes the support levels etc. self-fulfilling prophesies as well. If you get your 1850, many will buy because "they should" at that level. |
