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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (109395)6/21/2001 11:44:11 AM
From: Logain Ablar  Read Replies (2) of 436258
 
heinz:

I agree one can't use bull market indicators in a bear but the 10 days arms has been a good signal. Not saying it should be used alone but I'm starting to become clownish for the following reasons.

1) The liquidity being poured into the system should start having an effect by the end of the summer.

2) Tax rebates, as small as they are individually will provide a short term ripple.

3) Energy costs appear to have peaked for this round. I expect IRAQ oil back on the market and the slowdown in economy has reduced demand. This would be a boost and give greenspan some room. We are not seeing the truckers striking like last summer and the price today is higher than a year ago. This should show up in the transports first.

Not saying fundamentals like p/e are still way out of wack & this is not the time to be a long term investor but I'm of the opinion valuations don't get fixed until next year. Complacency is still out of wack but unfortunately the middle class savings in the US is still the stock market. The financial services industry has marketed this and they're not stopping.

Hays thinks this runs out by late summer. I actually think we can still have another flush (we need a good retest of the April low) to confirm April bottom (if it was a bottom) but we turn by late August.

There did seem to be a lot of flushing going on in some sectors this week. The babys were being thrown out with the bath water.

best

Tim
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