Albert,
That's Lehman, Dan Niles? Isn't he the same Dan Niles that came on CNBC a dozen times when Intel was trading over $60, a year ago, and said Intel was absolute must hold stock, his number one stock selection. And a little less than a year ago, J. Joseph (SSB) came out and said sell all semiconductors stocks. If I remember correctly Niles and his semiconductor analyst brothers tripped all over each saying how wrong Joseph was.
Now that the semi stocks are all down XX%, Niles and virtually all the rest are saying sell; Joseph is saying buy. Who are you going to listen to?
I'm not saying that I know when the PC market will recover. I suspect sales will get worse before they get better because most people and corps who are in the market for PC's will decide to wait for factory installed XP, rather than upgrade at a later date. Sometime, probably in September, the OEM's will start ordering components to build PC's that ship with XP, and by that time there should be some pent up demand and low inventories, especially at retail. That's my WAG, anyway.
Intel and AMD are in separate boats that are floating on the tide of demand. They may exchange a few points of market share, but their fate is much more linked to the demand tide of the marketplace than it is to competition between the two companies. For both volume and ASP's. So when you (or Niles) say Intel is in trouble, you are also saying AMD is in trouble.
John |
