John,
I understand what you are saying. However, myself, I will still stick to valuing individual companies and not the market. I know a little of what companies are and how they make money. I don't know what the "market" is - and I can bet that none of the ten economists know either. I haven't been in the market for a long time, but I remember the South Asia crisis which was analyzed to death by a lot of very intelligent people. The problem is that they could not reach any single conclusion and the crisis ended well before anyone said "hey it's gonna end, let's buy".
I am here with Buffett who looks at the companies he buys and not at the global situation. Yes, he does look at bond rates and buys zeros when this is the best investment for him. Yes, he compares the bond yield with inflation with stock prospects (see old BRK reports from inflation era). Yes, he even does go out on the limb and tells that "market" is grossly overvalued. But he never bases his purchase decision on the fact that the grossly overvalued market may crash and take his KO, AXP, etc. with it. He never claims that "yesterday was bull market, so I bought XXX, now is bear market so I buy ZZZ". I am no Buffett, but I am more comfortable following his footsteps than any macro indicator crowd.
BTW, be careful with your intonation. You sound like holier than thou: "I sold and you patsies bought". I can't speak for G&K crowd, but I bought the tech shares as they were coming down and I continue buying them now. I can't tell you what is my this year's return, but last year was pretty positive.
Good luck
Jurgis |
