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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Stock Farmer who wrote (43696)6/21/2001 2:05:37 PM
From: Seeker of Truth  Read Replies (2) of 54805
 
I think the best solution is a compromise. Suppose the company was earning a dollar before the industry wide and the whole economy wide slump. Now it is earning 30 cents for what might charitably be considered "temporary" reasons. We don't want to be fooled so we don't assume that the earnings are still a dollar. On the other hand if we use 30 cents then, depending on our various hard to quantify data, we may reasonably consider that too low. So maybe we compromise at 60 cents. Frankly I am sour about stocks that are not resistant to recessions. I remember well that Polaroid, Xerox and IBM main frames more or less ignored the economy as they were a must have item. That was in 1960-1975. On the other hand as an observer, I don't think the present high P/E's of tech stocks necessarily spell disaster. A quite possible scenario is that the stocks will sit where they are for a longish period, as the earnings recover. This will reduce the P/E; the same thing should be true if for P/CashFlow.
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