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Strategies & Market Trends : Mu Gamma Lambda
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To: HG who wrote (986)6/21/2001 4:47:58 PM
From: Jorj X Mckie  Read Replies (2) of 10077
 
Good stuff from the last mile thread

Message 15977276

From the second link in your post:
"So when will the slump end? What will be the signs of an improved market?
"Keep your eyes on broadband deployment on the last mile," said Robert Bell of the World Teleport Association, a New York-based trade group. "That will tell you when the Internet data center space will be absorbed.
"Just five percent of U.S. Internet users have broadband access," Bell added. "
--------

Wrong. ZERO percent have broadband access.
But consider this, all you fiber glut people out there: If the entire US population of internet users had cable modem or DSL "fraudband" access at 1Mbps,

and only 10% of this customer base was surfing at the same time at "half rate," it would still take thousands of single wavelength fibers to trunk this. Imagine if they all had "real" broadband.

Since the network buildout is not orchestrated by a single planner, and even the layers of network hierarchy are independently-run businesses in their own right, there has to be periods of temporary excess capacity as the other pieces recognize change and catch up. It will be a perpetual see-saw of excess to shortage and back. This ain't no finely tuned feedback system that always runs within 0.01% of optimal capacity from end to end.
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